Business Growth Strategies » seth godin

5 Business Predictions for 2012

Ryan M. Healy — Sat, 07 Jan 2012 20:14:37 +0000

So 2012 has arrived, and with it thousands of business predictions for the new year. One blog post in particular links out to 300+ Internet marketing predictions for the new year (!!).

My track record, while not perfect, has been fairly accurate. And so, once again, I’ll venture a few modest business predictions for the New Year. Here they are…

Business Prediction #1:
The Daily Deal Bubble Will Pop

Susan Payton predicts that daily deal sites will shake out. I don’t disagree, but my prediction goes further: I predict the entire daily deal “bubble” will pop.

Spring of 2011 was when Groupon reached its zenith. Everybody was talking about Groupons and other daily deal sites like Living Social. People were buying Groupons and using them.

But as Groupon’s IPO approached, they were already seeing a massive drop in traffic. People were growing tired of the daily deals and the daily emails.

Worse still, many merchants who were once eager to jump on the Groupon bandwagon had grown smarter. They’d gotten burned and were unlikely to ever offer another Groupon again.

Rachel Brown operates a bakery in England. She offered a 75% discount through Groupon — 12 cupcakes for only $10. More than 8,500 people bought her Groupon. She had to hire extra help just to fill the orders.

Brown lost $20,000 on the Groupon and says, “Without doubt, it was my worst ever business decision.” (On the bright side, her worst business decision was not as bad as mine.)

If you’re skeptical of my prediction, then I suggest you visit Rakesh Agrawal’s blog. He’s covered Groupon extensively, pointing out flaws in its business model and covering negative Groupon stories that almost nobody else is covering.

Even Perry Marshall closed out his 2012 predictions with this pithy comment: “P.S. Groupon’s gonna fizzle.”

Business Prediction #2:
Stricter Kindle Publishing Requirements

The year 2011 was the year that Kindle publishing exploded. It was also the year we learned about uber-successful Kindle authors like Amanda Hocking who, at age 26, was reportedly selling 100,000 copies of her ebooks every month — and keeping 70% of the revenue.

Kindle publishing had made Hocking a millionaire.

While lowering the barriers to entry is a good thing for honest, hard-working authors looking to get a break, it also opens up the doors for abuse. And so toward the end of 2011, it was becoming apparent that Kindle spam was a problem.

Amazon had already banned affiliate links from being included in Kindle ebooks, but the Kindle market continued to be swamped with low quality ebooks slapped together from cheap PLR content. Seth Godin writes in a post titled “Fake Books”:

When anyone can publish a book, anyone will.

Including people who will collect up public domain articles, paste them into Word and hit publish.

[...]

The giant risk (okay, it’s not a risk, it’s a certainty) of the long tail ebook revolution is that without enforced curation due to scarcity, the average quality is going to plummet (it has to) and the risk of buying a bogus book goes way up.

My prediction is actually twofold. I predict that Amazon will implement rules to cut down the amount of ebook spam in the Kindle market. And I also predict there will be some sort of curation service that helps readers find the best books in the areas they’re interested in.

This curation service could be the continuation and expansion of the Kindle Singles market, or it could be some third-party service. Either way, readers will need a better way of sorting and finding quality Kindle ebooks — and avoiding the junk put out by opportunistic marketers.

Business Prediction #3:
Governments Will Try to Control the Internet

The Internet has easily been the biggest force for change since the invention of the printing press. Governments are afraid of it. They can no longer stop the spread of information or shape opinions as easily as they could in the days of paper, ink, and radio.

In the year 2010 and 2011, many states were trying to impose sales taxes on Internet retailers. The most popular method was to use nexus laws based on the presence of affiliates in the state that was trying to collect the tax.

Amazon fought these efforts and continues to do so. And a handful of states realized that imposing sales taxes would cause many Internet retailers to shut down their affiliate programs altogether, resulting in lost income tax.

Nevertheless, I predict continued efforts by state governments to collect sales tax. Ultimately, if widespread state sales taxes are successfully imposed (and I hope these efforts fail), it will probably be some uniform sales tax that must be remitted to all 50 states.

But state efforts to collect sales tax may be the least of our worries.

The federal government recently tried to pass the Stop Online Piracy Act (SOPA). The language in this bill is so broad and far-reaching that it could effectively shut down user-generated content websites like YouTube, Imgur, and thousands more.

Not to mention SOPA would give the federal government the power to shut down any website they want, anytime they want to. SOPA is probably one of the biggest threats to free speech we’ve ever faced.

So while nearly-bankrupt state governments do their best to collect sales tax from Internet retailers, I predict the federal government will continue its efforts to regulate and control the Internet. (Keep this in mind come election time… and kick out the bastards who wrote and sponsored SOPA.)

Business Prediction #4:
Dwolla Steals Business from PayPal and Credit Cards

If you haven’t heard of Dwolla yet, let me be the first to initiate you.

Dwolla is a brand new payment system that was designed from scratch to destroy credit cards. Instead of paying a fee plus a percentage on transactions (not to mention a minimum monthly maintenance fee), you pay just $0.25 for any transaction over $10.

In more detail:

Creating your own Dwolla account is free.
Transactions under $10 are free.
Transactions over $10 are a flat $0.25.
And there are no maintenance fees.

I have a merchant account, and I’ve never liked it. I feel like they intentionally gouge me every month. I’m a low-volume user, so my merchant fees are sometimes equal to how much I make!

It’s pretty ridiculous, but up until now I had no other viable options besides PayPal. This year, I’ll be switching to Dwolla — possibly even killing my merchant account.

Dwolla’s advantage is not only in its low flat-fee transaction model. It’s also in Dwolla’s use of smart phones as a payment device to buy things at local stores and even order products online.

Given the widespread frustration with excessive credit card and PayPal fees and the trend toward smart phones powering the growth of local businesses, I predict Dwolla is going to gain serious traction in 2012. It’ll quickly become the preferred way to send and receive payments.

Business Prediction #5:
Hope & Fear Will Drive Consumers in 2012

Two major events are happening this year. The first is the 2012 U.S. presidential election. The second is the arrival of December 21, 2012, the final date on the Mayan calendar and what some believe will be the end of the world.

Americans and consumers throughout the western world are financially battered. Despite all the talking heads declaring “the end of the recession,” the average person doesn’t see it. Most people continue to struggle.

As we enter 2012, there are two primary emotions driving people: hope and fear. Many are hoping for good things to happen. But just as many or more fear what’s ahead.

Personal liberties are disappearing rapidly in the U.S. The likelihood of a dollar or Euro collapse becomes more probable every month. And continued economic hardship seems like a near certainty.

My prediction? Businesses that are able to tap into these two dominant emotions — hope and fear — will be positioned to prosper this year.

More Business Predictions for 2012

If you’d like to read more predictions and business advice for 2012, I recommend these articles to you (each opens in a new tab or window):

10 Predictions for 2012 – by Perry Marshall
My New Year’s Message – by Rakesh Agrawal
Online Marketing Trends for 2012 – by Chip Street
5 Trends That Will Shape Small Business in 2012 – by John Jantsch

I wish you all the best in the new year.

-Ryan M. Healy

P.S. Have any business predictions of your own? I’d love to hear them. Just leave a comment below.Similar Posts:

Secrets of a Mega Launch

Ryan M. Healy — Wed, 07 Apr 2010 21:07:45 +0000

“Mega” is such a hypey word, isn’t it?

But I think selling $150 million in a single day qualifies as a mega launch. To my knowledge, this figure puts to shame any kind of product launch ever done in the Internet marketing space.

Of course, I’m not talking about yet another home study course; I’m talking about the launch of the new Apple iPad.

Seth Godin shares 12 launch lessons that can be applied to just about any business at the link below. This is worth your time…

Secrets of the [almost] biggest selling launch ever.

-Ryan M. HealySimilar Posts:

Seth Godin, Ryan Healy & Jeff Bezos

Ryan M. Healy — Tue, 13 Jan 2009 00:36:52 +0000

It’s always a good day when your name is mentioned between Seth Godin and Jeff Bezos (the founder and owner of Amazon.com).

Source: http://www.insuremeblog.com/agent/2009/01/smart-takes/

-Ryan M. HealySimilar Posts:

12 Books That Changed My Life

Ryan M. Healy — Tue, 25 Mar 2008 16:54:21 +0000

I love to read.

And I love to track every book I read.

In fact, I began logging every book I finished starting in the 8th grade, and I’ve been doing it ever since. Every January, I close out the prior year, print my log, hole-punch it, and put it in my book log binder.

It’s nothing fancy, really. Just the book title, author, a few sentences about the book (including what I did or didn’t like), and a rating.

Since 1993, I’ve finished reading 405 books. So a couple weeks ago, I began thinking: Which of all the books I’ve read have deeply influenced me? Which books have actually changed my life?

I began writing them down in this post to share with you. I’ve added some commentary to explain why each book made the cut.

Ethan Frome by Edith Wharton

Have you ever been tempted to have an affair? Then this book will be like cold water on a blazing fire. I actually read it the first time when I was in high school; I wasn’t married yet. I read it again after I married. But the lessons I took from this book are a constant reminder to me.

Invisible Man by Ralph Ellison

This is most powerful book I’ve ever read about the issue of color and race in America. The “Invisible Man” in this book is the main character, but he has no name. People don’t see him; they see through him. It is a book about blindness and the ultimate removal of that blindness–the lifting of the veil.

All the King’s Men by Robert Penn Warren

A story of the rise and fall of a political icon. Not only does this novel illustrate the transient nature of power, it also paints a picture of regret and “what might have been.” Unless you’re reading with your eyes closed, this book should awaken you to grab hold of the pivotal moments that happen in your life.

The Jungle by Upton Sinclair

It is helpful to know this book was written specifically to expose what was happening in Chicago’s meat packing district at the beginning of the 20th Century. Sinclair was called a “muckraker,” which means he sought to expose “the powers that be” by speaking the truth. This book opened my eyes to the idea that the government is not as trustworthy as the school textbooks would have us believe.

Johnny Got His Gun by Dalton Trumbo

Growing up, I wondered why so many old men were interested in the history of war. I now find the subject fascinating. I especially like war literature. This book was the first novel I’d ever read about war. It is exceptionally powerful. It tells the story of a man who has lost his arms and legs, as well as his ability to hear, see, or speak. He is, quite literally, a living stump. And so the book is a collection of his memories before the war, his thoughts about his post-war condition, and his efforts to communicate with the outside world.

Purple Cow by Seth Godin

Of all the marketing books I’ve read, this one had the most profound effect on me. It’s a simple message: be remarkable. Godin uses case studies to show how to be remarkable, and why it’s so important in today’s advertising-saturated world.

All in All by A.E. Knoch

This was the first book I had ever read that presented the idea that God would eventually restore all men to fellowship with Him. It was the first book I read that suggested “hell” didn’t exist. Definitely worth reading, although I feel there are better books on the subject (anything by Stephen Jones). You can also read “The Greatest Love Story Never Told,” which is a primer I wrote.

Secrets of Time by Stephen Jones

Have you ever wondered how old the earth is according to the Bible? Or have you ever wondered what kind of time cycles are revealed in the Scriptures? If so, you’ll want to read this book. It opened my eyes to the fact that time is not random. Rather, it is governed and controlled by God. Furthermore, Biblical time cycles help us to understand prophecy, especially what is happening in the world today.

The Heavenly Man by Brother Yun & Paul Hattaway

Never have I read a book (besides the Bible) that is so spiritually inspirational. Brother Yun is a Chinese man who spent many years sharing the love of Jesus in Communist China. We Christians in America have no idea what hardship is or what dying daily to ourselves really means. Brother Yun’s story is a testament to that. I believe all Christians should read this book.

The 80/20 Principle by Richard Koch

Koch’s book is based on a discovery made by Vilfredo Pareto, a discovery that says 20% of inputs create 80% of outputs; and 80% of inputs create only 20% of outputs. It seems rather simple on the surface, but seeing the 80/20 Principle at work in life and business is amazing. It’s a principle that can change your life if it is applied consistently to how you live and work.

Debt-Free Living by Larry Burkett

Over the years, I’ve accumulated a bit of debt. Much of it was justified by viewing the money I spent as “business investments.” This book helped me to see the debt I had accumulated was a result of greed and a desire to get rich quick. I can’t say this book was comfortable for me to read. But it definitely gave me a kick in the seat of the pants and made me finally do something about my debt.

The Bible

Last, but not least, the Bible has changed my life more than any other book ever written. I can’t even begin to say how it has changed me. I wouldn’t be able to trace its influence on me if I tried. It’s been a part of my life since I was born and will be a part of my life until I die.

On a side note, the first book of the Bible I ever read was Leviticus. I read it in 7th grade. Why? Because everybody said Leviticus was the worst book of the Bible. Naturally, given my contrarian nature, I knew I had to read Leviticus first.

So these are the 12 books that have changed my life.

Of course, I wish I could share more. I didn’t even get to mention Steinbeck, Faulkner, Rand, or any of the Russian authors, all of whom have impacted me in some way.

Now it’s your turn.

I want to know what books have changed your life.

If you’re up for it, write a blog post listing the books that have changed your life and why. Then link back to this blog post.

I will start a list at the bottom of this post linking to anybody who decides to participate. If you want to make sure you are included in the list, then please send me an email including the link to your post at rhealy [at] gmail [dot] com.

Thanks! And I look forward to reading your list.