One of the things I’ve learned as a copywriter and marketing consultant is that whenever somebody tries to sell you “big numbers,” you need to crank up your B.S. detector to “red alert.”
We’ve all heard it at one time or another.
“Hey, Frank. Listen, man. I’ve got a really good opportunity. Now, keep this quiet, but I think this thing is going to the moon! We could make a quarter million, easy, when this thing takes off. All you need to do is…”
And then Frank’s buddy lowers the boom. Since Frank doesn’t have his B.S. detector set to “hyper sensitive,” he’s going to get creamed. Worse, since he bought into the B.S. — and effectively lied to himself – he never sees it coming.
In hindsight, after his wallet’s a few thousand bucks lighter, Frank will swear up and down it wasn’t his fault, that his buddy really is a good guy, and that he “just didn’t know” it was going to turn out so bad.
And that’s the way it often goes with grandiose promises of making millions (or even thousands) overnight.
About 5 months ago, a client wanted to find some “super affiliates” who would guarantee they could deliver 1,000 new customers within a certain period of time.
When I heard this, my B.S. detector was going absolutely crazy. To my knowledge, the number of super affiliates who can deliver 1,000 new customers in a pinch can probably be counted on one hand. Yet my protests fell on deaf ears.
Now, the client naively asking for guarantees of this magnitude was bad enough. But that wasn’t the worst of it.
The worst part was the affiliates who promised they could actually deliver 1,000 customers!
The client and the affiliates were now accomplices. And they were fooling themselves.
Because in spite of the “guarantees,” not a single affiliate came close to delivering even 100 customers.
Keep in mind, this is just one example of many I could share. I’ve seen guys downright convinced they’ll create $50,000 a month in a few months’ time — only to find themselves broke and facing foreclosure.
More recently, a guy offered to promote one of my client’s products, promised to do all the work, and claimed he could sell 100 units, easy. He was wrong on both counts. Total units sold: Six.
On and on it goes.
There’s nothing wrong with being an optimist. But I prefer to be a realistic optimist — somebody who bases his optimism in reality and not on fairy tale dreams that don’t have a prayer of coming true.
So here’s how to protect yourself from big numbers and oversized promises: Discount them. And don’t be shy about discounting.
Never forget that you’re a direct response marketer. You have the unique advantage of being able to “predict” the outcome of just about any promotion.
If somebody tells you you’ll make $20,000 in back-end profits, automatically discount that number. Then, if you can get access to some real figures, run the numbers yourself, based on what you know, and see if the big promise holds up to scrutiny.
If it doesn’t, you just saved yourself a lot of wasted time, effort, and financial resources you’ll never be able to recoup. And if the numbers actually do hold up, congratulations. You just found yourself a rare opportunity, indeed.
-Ryan M. Healy
